AXNT20 KNHC 061153
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 22W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE 
SOUTH OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. A SHALLOW 
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...TO A 1010 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE
IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. BROAD SURFACE SOUTHERLY 
WIND FLOW PREVAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC 
OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N50W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
TO 26N89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LINES OF CONFLUENT SURFACE WIND FLOW.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE EVERYWHERE.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES NEAR
32N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. A SEPARATE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 32N48W TO 13N53W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 60W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS SOUTH OF 12N61W
18N50W BEYOND 23N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N31W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 30N50W TO 29N73W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 18N21W.

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MT